How Does The Covid-19 Epidemic Affect American People's Attitudes Toward China?

 The COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic seems destined to change the course of human history. The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission first publicly notified the pneumonia epidemic on December 31, 2019. After that, the Chinese government decisively adopted unprecedented comprehensive and strict control measures on Hubei Province and Wuhan City, strictly controlled the movement of people across the country, and quickly contained the spread of the epidemic , To prevent more people from being infected, but after March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has changed from a local epidemic to a global spread, becoming a serious public health event threatening the lives and health of people around the world.

As of August 23, 2021, a total of more than 210 million confirmed cases have been reported worldwide, and more than 4.43 million deaths have been reported. Changes in political conditions within countries and political struggles between countries have made the prevention and control of the epidemic more complicated on the one hand, and on the other hand, the spreading epidemic has further affected the evolution of international relations and domestic politics.

In this global crisis in which the epidemic and the political situation are entangled, and the "anti-epidemic" and "protests" are intertwined, China and the United States have undoubtedly become the protagonists. Before the epidemic, the Trump administration of the United States had begun a trade war against China; the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in China in early 2020 to suddenly spread in the United States after March 2020, becoming a catalyst for the overall deterioration of Sino-US relations.

The worsening of the epidemic in the United States has greatly affected its domestic economy and people's daily lives. The polarization of domestic politics in the United States, especially the November 2020 presidential election, has made scientific anti-epidemic measures increasingly politicized. In order to cover up its improper response to the epidemic, the Trump administration has continued to “snap the pot” of China, further worsening Sino-US relations, and ultimately did not escape the fate of losing the presidential election.

In this dazzling and intertwined plot of elections and the fight against the epidemic, how did the American people respond to the epidemic? How does the epidemic affect people's lives and work? Is the American people's attitude towards China related to their different impacts from the epidemic, or is it affected by deep-rooted partisanship?

In 2020, our research team cooperated with Professor Mike Hout of the Department of Sociology of New York University to launch the "Life Experience and Community in Covid-19 in the United States, LECC-US" The survey project is carried out by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) of the University of Chicago. The survey results provide detailed answers to the above questions.

In addition to basic socio-economic background and demographic characteristics, LECC-US collected COVID-19 pneumonia infection status, epidemic prevention measures, life, work and social interactions during the epidemic, and voting behavior of the respondent and the people around him. Political identity and nationalist sentiments. The survey also specifically designed some questions about China, including the attitude towards China, the evaluation of the performance of China and the United States in epidemic prevention and control, and the evaluation of the United States' recent China policy.

The LECC-US project has completed two phases of follow-up investigations. The first phase of the survey used the AmeriSpeak sample database owned by NORC and interviewed 4,390 nationally representative adults over the age of 18 through the Internet and telephone from October 8 to October 27, 2020 (which coincided with the U.S. presidential election On the eve of voting). The second round of follow-up survey was conducted from March 23 to April 5, 2021. 3,439 adults were successfully interviewed, with a follow-up rate of 78.3%. This article shares some preliminary findings with readers on the content of the relevant parts.

The epidemic situation in the U.S. and its impact on social and economic life

During the two investigations from the end of October 2020 to the beginning of April 2021, the epidemic situation in the United States continued to deteriorate. In the first survey, about 2.92% of respondents reported a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia, and 5 months later, the proportion of reported confirmed cases rose to 8.42%. This ratio is very close to the ratio of confirmed cases reported by Johns Hopkins University (indirectly proves the representativeness of the LECC-US sample). Of course, the increase in the number of confirmed diagnoses is also related to the increase in the detection rate. In the first survey, the COVID-19 virus detection rate in the samples was only 32.1%, and in the second time it rose to 52.6%.

Although the epidemic situation continues to worsen, the American people's epidemic prevention behavior and awareness of epidemic prevention have not changed much. Scientific research shows that wearing masks in public places is an effective means of protecting against COVID-19 virus. Interestingly, in October 2020, only 60% of people wore a mask every time they went out, compared to only 62% in April 2021, although the rate of confirmed infections increased nearly three times during the period. As the experience of Wuhan has shown, “closing the city” when necessary is an effective means to stop the large-scale spread of the virus. However, for the US version of "lockdown" (stay at home), only about half of the people in the two surveys considered it "very necessary" and "absolutely necessary" (50.47% and 48.9% in the two surveys, respectively).

The public's lack of consensus on epidemic prevention behavior and awareness of epidemic prevention reflects the deep political division in the United States. The outbreak of the US epidemic coincided with the presidential election. The epidemic resonated with the election, making the scientific issues of epidemic prevention measures often give way to political manipulation to win votes. The Republican presidential candidate Trump, in order to avoid accusations of poor leadership of his government in preventing and controlling the epidemic, has continuously politicized the epidemic, blaming China externally, and downplaying the severity of the epidemic internally. As a result of the US presidential election, Biden and Trump received 51.3% and 46.8% of the votes respectively.

Although Trump lost the election, he has a large following. Their attitudes towards epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic are also deeply influenced by their political stances. For example, 81.1% of Biden’s supporters wear masks every time they go out, while only 42.7% of Trump’s supporters do so; 72.9% of Biden’s supporters believe that “closing the city” is absolutely necessary or necessary ; And only 20.3% of Trump supporters think so.

How has the lives of American people been affected? The epidemic has increased unemployment and changed the work and lives of many Americans. Data from the two rounds of surveys both show that slightly more than 14% of respondents have lost their jobs due to the epidemic; among those who have jobs, those who are worried about losing their jobs in the next year, in 2020, 17.9%, by 2021, this The proportion dropped to 8.65%. Among the working population, 10.2% of workplaces have been closed due to the epidemic; but nearly one-third of people can work at home due to the epidemic, but nearly half of them have to go out to work during the epidemic. It shows that the impact of the epidemic on different groups is different. For families with underage children, nearly one-third of them need to teach their children home schooling at home due to school closures. This responsibility mainly falls on women.

The epidemic has brought financial difficulties to many American families. In the second phase of the survey, about 20.2% of the surveyed households were unable to make ends meet, and 20.2% of the households barely supported it. 19.6% of the interviewees said that their families have already experienced financial difficulties due to the epidemic; 10.8% of families may experience financial difficulties within one month; another 6.2% of families expect to have financial difficulties within 6 months. In 2020, 23.8% of households have lowered their food standards due to economic difficulties caused by the epidemic, and in 2021, 18.7% of households have lowered their food standards due to economic reasons. The impact of the epidemic on the lives of individuals and families in the United States is comprehensive. Perhaps because of the normalization of the epidemic, or perhaps because the Biden administration came to power after the presidential election, compared with 2020, Americans’ sense of uncertainty about the future has eased.

U.S. people's evaluation of the performance of China and the United States in fighting the epidemic and changes in their attitudes toward China

Although the deterioration of Sino-US relations did not begin with the COVID-19 epidemic, it has also been affected by the epidemic. Former US President Trump’s political operations for the November 2020 presidential election, from initially admiring China’s epidemic prevention and control measures, to later “shocking” the deterioration of the US epidemic, China has further deteriorated Sino-US relations. The earth has influenced the American people's attitude towards China.

At the end of the first investigation on October 27, 2020, the US epidemic was still worsening, with more than 9.17 million confirmed cases and more than 230,000 deaths; China has controlled the epidemic, with fewer than 86,000 confirmed cases and 4634 deaths. Our survey requires respondents to separately evaluate the performance of China and the United States in preventing and controlling the epidemic. What is striking is that the Americans do not seem to buy into China's epidemic prevention results. Only 42.9% of the interviewees gave positive comments on China's epidemic prevention work (9.6% thought it was “very good” and 33.31% thought it was “good”). In addition, nearly 38.4% of the interviewees gave positive comments on the US epidemic prevention work under Trump's leadership (11.3% thought it was “very good”; 27.1% thought it was “good”).

Similarly, partisan prejudice has also affected people's evaluation of China and the United States' epidemic prevention and control work. For example, 59.0% of Democrats support China’s epidemic prevention performance positively (15.6% think it’s “very good” and 43.4% think it’s relatively good); while only 22.2% of Republican Party supporters give positive comments to China’s epidemic prevention performance. (2.4% think “very good” and 19.8% think “fairly good”). As for the US epidemic prevention performance under Trump’s leadership, only 12.2% of Democratic supporters gave a positive evaluation (2.6% thought it was “very good” and 9.6% thought it was “good”), while 76.6% Republican supporters gave a positive evaluation. (23.8% thought it was “very good” and 46.8% thought it was “good”).

Is the United States going to impose sanctions on China for the economic losses caused by the epidemic? On this issue, Americans seem to have no consensus: about 33.5% of the respondents opposed, 35.6% of the respondents held a neutral attitude, and 30.9% of the respondents supported. Further analysis of the party background of the supporters and opponents found that 50.1% of the Democratic supporters were opposed (34.8% neutral, 15.1% supported), while only 16.3% of the Republican supporters were opposed (31.3% neutral, 52.2%) support). America’s “sweeping the pot” politics is also deeply imprinted by partisanship.

Both surveys asked respondents about their overall views on China. There were four options: "very positive", "some positive", "some negative", and "very negative" (in order to prompt the respondents to make a clear statement, the survey did not Set the "Neutral" option). Consistent with the results of other public opinion surveys-for example, a survey conducted by the Pew Global Research Center in October 2020 showed that 73% of Americans hold negative views of China. According to the data from the first phase of our survey, only about 1/ 4 respondents (3.8% “very positive”; 21.7% “somewhat positive”) hold a positive view of China, while nearly 75% hold a negative view (46.2% “somewhat negative” and 28.4% “very negative”).

In terms of the overall view of China, the politically divided United States has a rare consensus. The data of the second survey in 2021 showed that the overall attitude towards China remained basically unchanged (3.1% “very positive”, 22.2% “somewhat positive”, 45.8% “somewhat negative”, 29.0% “very negative”, Pew According to the results of the Global Research Center’s 2021 public opinion survey, 76% of them hold a negative view of China). There is still a certain degree of correlation between party identity and people's attitudes towards China (correlation coefficient is 0.271, p<0.001), that is, Republican supporters are more likely to hold negative views of China than Democratic supporters. The proportion of supporters of both parties who hold a “very negative” attitude towards China is increasing. In the first survey, 16.3% of Democratic supporters and 45.1% of Republican supporters had a “very negative” attitude towards China; in the second survey, this proportion had not changed much, only an increase of about 1 Percentage points (17.28% and 46.17% respectively)

Has the epidemic affected the American people's attitude towards China?

It is generally believed that the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic has severely affected the health and work of the American people and disrupted their social life. Those groups that are more adversely affected are more likely to blame China and thus have a more negative attitude towards China. Our survey data shows the opposite.

In the first survey, the proportion of people infected with the COVID-19 virus who had a positive attitude towards China was significantly higher than that of those who were not infected: 22.6% of the infected people had a “very positive” attitude towards China; The proportion of infected people (including those who have undergone a nucleic acid test but the result is negative) is only 3.1%. Whether you are unemployed due to the epidemic or may be unemployed due to the epidemic is also related to your attitude towards China, but the pattern is diametrically opposite to general expectations.

In the two rounds of surveys, the unemployed people’s positive attitudes towards China were significantly higher than those of the unemployed (p<0.001): in 2020 and 2021, 6.6% and 3.9% of people’s attitudes towards China were "very Positive", while among those without unemployment, the figures were 3.9% and 3.2%, respectively. Self-assessment "very likely" People who are unemployed during the epidemic also have a more positive attitude towards China than others: 19.0% and 12.3% of them have "very positive" attitudes towards China in the two surveys. Similarly, respondents whose families have encountered and may encounter financial difficulties during the epidemic have a slightly more positive attitude towards China than those who have not been affected by the epidemic.

Of course, the above-mentioned related factors to China's attitude may be affected by other factors. For example, who is more likely to be infected and who is more likely to be unemployed will encounter economic difficulties, and the factors that affect these experiences may also affect attitudes toward China. Therefore, we used multiple regression models (sequential logit model and fixed-effects sequential logit model), based on two rounds of survey data, to estimate the influencing factors of the American public’s attitude towards China.

The results show that after taking into account factors such as gender, age, race, education, etc., consistent with the previous findings, Republican supporters are more likely to have a negative attitude towards China than Democratic supporters; people who are unemployed during the epidemic are more likely than those who are not unemployed. Are more likely to have a positive attitude towards China. In addition, the groups infected with the COVID-19 virus are more likely to have a positive attitude towards China in the first round of surveys than the uninfected groups, but there is no significant difference between the two groups' attitudes towards China in the second round of surveys. After further controlling the fixed effects at the individual level, it can be found that those who were unemployed during the epidemic had a more positive attitude towards China than those who were not unemployed.

Although we don't know what the process and mechanism of the last point are, two points are clear. First, the majority of the American people have a negative attitude towards China, up to three-quarters. Second, these negative attitudes do not blame China for personal health, work or life being affected by the epidemic.

Finally, in order to test whether the difference in the performance of China and the United States in the national defense epidemic affects the American people's attitude towards China, that is, whether the American people have a good impression of China because of China's successful control of the epidemic. In the second survey, we designed a survey experiment in which the respondents were randomly divided into two groups. One group directly asked the respondent’s overall attitude towards China, and the other group was given the question before the question. The interviewer showed the huge difference in anti-epidemic performance between China and the United States.

As mentioned in the second part, Americans have not shown a large degree of positive evaluation of China's performance in fighting the epidemic. Here we compare the differences in attitudes between the experimental group and the control group on two issues: The first issue is the overall view of China. There are four options:

1. "Very positive"

2. "Somewhat positive"

3. "Somewhat negative"

4. "Very negative"

The second question is "Should the United States stop its trade war with China?"; The third question is "The United States should sanction Chinese high-tech companies to restrict their development in the US market. The second and third questions use 5 Level Attitude Scale (1. strongly disagree, 5. strongly agree).

Figure 1. How the performance of China's national defense epidemic affects American people's attitudes toward China: results of survey experiments

The latest survey: How does the COVID-19 epidemic affect American people's attitudes toward China? The latest survey: How does the COVID-19 epidemic affect American people's attitudes toward China? To facilitate comparison, we averaged the attitude scale and compared the experimental group (receiving positive news about the prevention and control of the epidemic in China) with the control group. As shown in the figure above, in the overall attitude towards China and the evaluation of the two specific policies, the difference between the experimental group and the control group is not only very small, but also statistically not significant (t values ​​are all less than 1.96, and none of them pass the 0.05 statistics. Significance test). The analysis results of these investigations and experiments show that the difference in epidemic prevention performance between China and the United States, and China's "scenery here is unique", has not caused the American people to have a positive view of China. Most of them still hold negative views.

Main findings and summary

During the outbreak and deterioration of the U.S. epidemic, we used the AmeriSpeak sample database of the National Public Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago, before and after the 2020 U.S. presidential elections (October 2020 and April 2021) to conduct a nationwide survey. Two representative follow-up surveys on social conditions during the epidemic. This article has conducted some preliminary analysis on the epidemic situation in the project, the attitude towards China, the evaluation of the performance of China and the United States in the defense of the epidemic, and the evaluation of the United States' recent policy toward China. Found:

1 Consistent with the public health statistics of infected cases, the outbreak in the United States continued to worsen during the four-month interval between the two investigations. The lives and work of a considerable number of Americans have been affected. About 14% of the respondents lost their jobs due to the epidemic; more people worry about losing their jobs in the next year. About 20% of households are already struggling to make ends meet, and another 20% are barely supporting it. These families have begun to lower their food standards due to the economic difficulties caused by the epidemic. Of course, with the normalization of the epidemic and the adoption of the Biden administration, Americans’ sense of uncertainty and anxiety brought about by the epidemic has eased.

2 Despite the deteriorating epidemic, the American people have no consensus on epidemic prevention measures such as wearing masks and the US version of "lockdown" (stay at home). Epidemic prevention behavior and awareness did not change much during the two investigations. Approximately 40% of people do not always wear masks when they go out; only about 50% think that measures to close the city during the epidemic are “very necessary” or “absolutely necessary”. At the end of July this year, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that, in view of the highly contagious Delta COVID-19 mutant virus, in certain areas of the United States, people who have been vaccinated should return to wearing masks indoors. But this requirement is almost impossible to achieve. Americans' attitudes towards epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic are deeply influenced by political stances. Politics override science and reflect the deep political division in the United States.

3 Although the American people lack consensus on epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic measures and attitudes, in terms of their overall view of China, the United States, which is divided by parties, has a rare consensus. Our survey shows that about three-quarters of Americans have negative attitudes towards China, and the proportion of negative attitudes has not changed during the two surveys, but has also slightly increased. These negative attitudes are not caused by personal work or life being adversely affected by the epidemic.

4 The Americans do not seem to give high marks to China's success in controlling the epidemic. 43% of the interviewees gave positive comments on China's epidemic prevention work, but nearly 38.4% of the interviewees gave positive comments on the US epidemic prevention work under Trump's leadership. The results of the investigation and experiment show that China's successful epidemic prevention and control performance relative to the United States does not affect their attitudes and policy evaluations towards China.

5 Finally, whether it is the anti-epidemic measures taken by the United States, the evaluation of the epidemic prevention and control performance of China and the United States, or the overall attitude towards China, they are deeply imprinted by American partisan politics. It is particularly worth noting that there is a rare consensus among American public opinion on China's overall attitude, although Democratic supporters are still more friendly than Republican supporters. This may also partly explain why after the Biden administration of the Democratic Party came to power, many people have been waiting for the amendments to a series of policies against China in the later period of Trump's administration.

The deterioration of Sino-US relations may be the most important international political event in the second decade of the 21st century. The impact of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic remains to be seen. This evolution of international relations has its own deep domestic roots. Although our relevant response policies try to prevent the vertical decline of bilateral relations, we can't know this and the other, and its effect may be counterproductive. The scientific research on American domestic society and politics by Chinese academic circles, even if it is some factual knowledge accumulation, is still very weak. People-to-people and cultural exchanges between China and the United States should not only promote Americans’ understanding of China, but the time has come for us to have an in-depth understanding and analysis of American society and politics.