Recently, as the COVID-19 virus continues to mutate, the infectious power and immune escape ability are getting stronger, and the COVID-19 epidemic situation in various countries has rebounded or worsened. Japanese experts even believe that Tokyo, which has just hosted the Olympic Games, "the infection situation is out of control." . Since July 20, due to the loopholes in the prevention and control of overseas imports at Nanjing Lukou Airport, my country has reproduced the local epidemic, spreading to 48 cities in 18 provinces. After efforts to prevent and control, the number of new cases has been cleared in many places, but there has been an infection of workers in overseas cargo aircraft operation areas in Shanghai, which has once again raised the hearts of the people across the country. The sneak attack of the COVID-19 virus is unpredictable, and where it will go in the future has become the focus of continuous discussion and attention.
Research believes that COVID-19 may be eradicated from a technical perspective
On August 21, at the 104th press conference of Shanghai's epidemic prevention and control work, Ning Guang, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and dean of Ruijin Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, stated that the recent global epidemic has continued to spread due to the influence of the delta variant. Affected by various factors such as public health control measures, increased mobility, vaccination, virus strain mutations, etc., the global epidemic will continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing the characteristics of long-term, complexity and uncertainty, plus some countries The rebound of the epidemic has continued to increase the imported risks facing my country. According to overseas news, as of about 6:30 on August 23, Beijing time, there were more than 454,000 newly confirmed cases and 8,323 new deaths in a single day worldwide. Among them, Iran, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, and Mexico are the five countries with the largest number of newly confirmed cases. Even Australia, where there have been no cases of local communities in the past year, has had to take measures to "close the city" in many places due to the rebound of the epidemic in the country since August.
Since 2019, the COVID-19 virus has derived variants such as alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and lambda. A lot of evidence shows that the mutated virus is more infectious than the standard virus, and the symptoms of infection are insidious. Coupled with the fact that there are too many infected people nowadays, it also gives the COVID-19 virus more opportunities to mutate, and new mutant strains may appear. "Eliminate", "coexist", and "adapt"... have become the key words in the global discussion of the direction of the COVID-19 virus.
According to a report by the BBC on July 20, as early as January this year, the scientific magazine Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, virologists and health experts around the world. Among them, 90% of experts believe that the COVID-19 virus may become an endemic virus in the future and continue to spread around the world. Another 40% of experts said that considering the herd immunity effect of vaccines or diseases, it is expected that the COVID-19 virus can be completely eliminated in a certain area. In July, the "English Journal of Medicine" published an article stating that global eradication of the COVID-19 virus is feasible. The researchers compared COVID-19 with smallpox and poliomyelitis, and believe that it is possible to eradicate COVID-19 from a technical perspective, but they will face challenges such as poor vaccine acceptance, immune escape, highly infectious mutations, and weak prevention and control measures. .
At present, many countries, including China, have seen "breakthrough cases" that have been infected again after being vaccinated, and people's confidence in adhering to the "eradication theory" has been hit to a certain extent. However, the "Jerusalem Post" recently reported that Israeli scientists are expected to develop new drugs against COVID-19 pneumonia. Phase II clinical trials have shown that 90% of critically ill patients have been cured. The emergence of special drugs in the future has become a new hope for people to eliminate COVID-19.
Experts believe that there is still a need for a protracted war against the virus.
Chen Jieliang, associate professor of the Department of Pathogenic Biology, School of Basic Medicine, Fudan University, introduced that from the history of human fight against infectious diseases, there are four outcomes of infectious diseases: eradication, regional elimination, long-term coexistence, and out of control. Smallpox virus is the only virus in the world that has been eliminated by humans. Humans have been fighting for 3,000 years. It was not until the invention of the smallpox vaccine in modern times that after large-scale population vaccination, the smallpox virus was completely wiped out in the 1980s. Currently, the only surviving variola virus is kept in a medical laboratory for research purposes. The premise of eradication is that humans understand the Achilles heel of smallpox: the human body is the only host of the smallpox virus. Poliomyelitis is also a virus, and the emergence of vaccines has also allowed it to be declared close to "elimination" by the World Health Organization. It currently only exists in some countries and regions.
So, where is the COVID-19 virus heading? Many experts unanimously stated in an interview with Life Times that, under the current circumstances, the probability of completely eradicating the COVID-19 virus is basically zero. The main reasons are as follows:
The COVID-19 virus has pandemic characteristics. Li Tong, chief physician of the Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, once said that from a regular perspective, virus mutations tend to coexist peacefully with people as much as possible. If it does too much harm to humans, patients will often die or be hospitalized instead. There will be a large-scale outbreak; and viruses that can evade vaccines and become less toxic, asymptomatic or mildly infected, are more likely to be epidemic for a long time. Liu Youning, a professor of the Department of Respiration at the PLA General Hospital, said that SARS and MERS, which are also coronaviruses, finally chose to leave. They existed in nature, not humans eliminated them. But at present, the COVID-19 virus is still mutating. Whether it is developing in a moderate direction or being more "virulent", we have no way of judging and controlling. What is clear is that there is still no sign that the COVID-19 virus will say goodbye to us in a short time, and it is likely to coexist with humans for many years like the flu.
Awareness of the COVID-19 virus is limited. Dean of the School of Health of Wuhan University and experts on emerging infectious diseases, Yu Xuejie and Chen Jieliang, both pointed out that we still don’t know where the COVID-19 virus comes from and who the intermediate host is. In addition, it can be zoonotic, and the strains continue to mutate. This has brought great difficulties to the research and development of drugs and vaccines for the COVID-19 virus, and there is currently no way to completely clear them.
There are still many difficulties in vaccinating the vaccine for all people. Liu Youning believes that herd immunity can only be achieved by vaccination with 70%-85% of the entire population, and the effective prevention rate of domestic vaccines is about 70%. This means that China, with a population of 1.4 billion, can only achieve effective vaccination for all its members. Herd immunity. However, due to various reasons, it is difficult for us to achieve 100% universal vaccination. Li Tong once said that the current vaccine may still be infected after vaccination, and the protection period is relatively short.
The epidemic prevention measures are facing variables. Li Tong once said that COVID-19 is easy to spread invisibly. This kind of virus, which is not fatal to most people, requires everyone to cooperate in epidemic prevention. If there is personal failure to actively prevent the epidemic, non-cooperation, or the negligence of the staff, the virus will still spread. Chen Jieliang said that some foreign countries have loose epidemic prevention measures, "anti-vaccination" voices are high, less than half of the willingness to vaccinate, and some are resolutely not to vaccinate. This provides room for virus mutation, which may lead to more transmission and immune escape. Sexual variants.
Optimize the prevention and control strategy, and clear it when it appears
"No one wants to coexist with a disease-causing virus, but we have no choice. We must have a little awe of the virus, the microorganism, respect its natural laws, and follow the path." Liu Youning said that since the Wuhan epidemic, There have been several outbreaks in mainland my country, without exception, from overseas infected persons or imported cold chains. If you are not careful, local cases will appear. In other words, there are no indigenous viruses in our country, and there is no environment and conditions that promote virus mutations to produce new variants. Under the current circumstances, we have not yet completely given up on zeroing, even if it is cleared within a period of time. . After that, we may have to reach a balance between zeroing and coexistence. Chen Jieliang also said that in the current situation that herd immunity has not yet been achieved, antiviral drugs are still being developed, and new strains are constantly mutating, the current more urgent task is still "clearing", but we must also deal with "coexistence". Prepare.
Experts emphasized that what is needed most at the moment is that we should seriously discuss how to optimize our country's epidemic prevention countermeasures.
Both control and vaccinations must be taken into consideration. Li Tong once said that in the past, we thought that the vaccination rate was over 80%, and it might not be necessary to strictly prevent and control, but now that mutant viruses appear, it is a challenge to the vaccine effect. The rebound of the epidemic after the premature relaxation of control in foreign countries is also a lesson for the past. . Therefore, on the one hand, we must aim at dynamic zeroing, continue to adhere to the original prevention and control measures, take strict precautions and vigorously vaccinate. On the other hand, we need to strengthen research on the criteria for determining antibody indicators, so as to consider whether to use booster vaccines.
Promote the research and development of drugs and vaccines. Chen Jieliang said that effective antiviral drugs are still the "cardiotonic" for humans to fight the epidemic against various mutated COVID-19 strains. For example, although the flu is still there, we have vaccines and Tamiflu drugs to control it. The COVID-19 vaccine should also continue to use scientific evidence and practical effects to prove its effectiveness, and timely research on vaccines against new mutant strains.
Optimize public health models and prevention and control strategies. Yu Xuejie said that our anti-epidemic and epidemic prevention results are outstanding and successful, but considering the huge human and material resources invested in epidemic prevention, and long-term persistence in the future, it is necessary to continue to optimize the strategy. For example, should my country continue to strictly guard against death, restrict travel abroad, study abroad, international exchanges, etc.; whether it can develop a more convenient nucleic acid detection method like blood sugar measurement; whether the public health field can propose a more optimized public health model and prevention Control strategies, etc., all of these need to be discussed by government departments, medical experts, economists, and customs.
The world must work together. Chen Jieliang believes that if the global epidemic is to not get out of control, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation, give full play to the advantages of various countries, and assist third world countries to share epidemic prevention experience. In addition, relevant organizations and institutions are now required to promote academic cooperation at the scientific level, jointly monitor the impact of virus mutation, and promote the development and sharing of drugs and vaccines.
Everyone must maintain a good attitude and normalize epidemic prevention. Li Tong once said that everyone should neither panic nor be indifferent to the continued existence of the epidemic. Personal habits are very important. After the COVID-19 outbreak last year, the simplest behavior of people wearing masks reduced the flu by 95% in the fall and winter last year. Therefore, you should wear a mask, wash your hands frequently, keep a distance of one meter when you go out, reduce gatherings, and open more windows for ventilation at home.
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